The real problem with Google might be Facebook

Maybe the trouble with Google is simply our expectations? Or maybe it’s Facebook?

Google recently released their quarterly financials, which were considered to be disappointing because the company only grew 17%, instead of the expected 20%.
If they said they would hit 20, and they only hit 17, Google deserves some raised eyebrows. But beyond that, let’s take a step back and consider the big picture….
OF COURSE growth is slowing at Google. You know what puts a handbrake on growth? Ubiquity. Google dominates most markets in which they have a horse in the race (with G+ being a notable exception). And in just about any company, in any scenario, 17% growth when you are already that large would be considered astoundingly competent.
But we expect more. We always expect more.
And the trouble is, I’m not sure Google (as currently constituted) is going to be able to continuing providing it. As Twitter (and eventually, Instagram and Pinterest) get their self-serve advertising capabilities sorted out enough that small businesses can easily deploy them, companies that have lived and died by their Google paid search programs are going to develop a wandering eye. It’s already happening with Facebook, as the skyrocketing ad revenues at Facebook are coming not just from big advertisers, but from SMBs that are willing to pay for the organic reach that Facebook shrewdly took away.
But the big move to watch is Facebook’s new Atlas technology that creates a display advertising network across the Web, using Facebook IDs instead of cookies to track users and target ads. Think about how much more Facebook knows about you than does Google. Now think about using that information to make your advertising more relevant and efficient. Google has had a lion’s share of the kingdom to itself since buying DoubleClick. Now, Atlas presents an enormous competitor that many actually have a better mousetrap.
Yes, Facebook is the world’s most popular social network, and 1.5 billion users is pretty damn impressive. But their real legacy maybe end up being how they completely revolutionized how goods and services are promoted.
Google has a ton of growth left, and this won’t be a one-horse race. But over the looooong term, Facebook’s moves are starting to look more and more like a smart flanking maneuver.

Sprout Social Shoutout

Today’s Sprout Social Shoutout is for my friend Bob Knorpp, the host of the incredibly popular advertising podcast, The Beancast. I’ve been fortunate to have been on Bob’s terrific show a few times, and he was a guest on my Social Pros podcast, too. Follow Bob, you’ll be glad you did.

Jay Today

This video is from Jay Today is my near-daily 3-minute video where I talk about social media, content marketing, business and life. JayToday is available on Youtube, iTunes (as a video podcast, and now as an audio podcast too), and at JayToday.tv.

The show is sponsored by Sprout Social (which I use for my social media), and Candidio (a great video editing service).

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